Walker County - EdTribune AL - Alabama Education Data

Nine Alabama Districts Haven't Grown in Over a Decade

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Perry County^↗ enrolled 731 students in 2025-26. Eleven years ago, it enrolled 1,730. Not once in the intervening years did enrollment rise, not by a single student, not for a single year.

Perry County is not alone. Nine Alabama districts have declined every year for 11 consecutive years, the entire span of data available in the state's enrollment records. Seven of the nine sit in or border the Black Belt, the crescent of historically Black, rural counties stretching across south-central Alabama where population out-migration has hollowed out communities for decades. The other two, Walker County^↗ and Lee County^↗, are losing students for entirely different reasons.

Unbroken decline, unevenly distributed

The nine districts with 11-year decline streaks are Butler County^↗, Lee County, Lowndes County^↗, Macon County^↗, Perry County, Selma City^↗, Sumter County^↗, Walker County, and Wilcox County^↗. Together they lost 9,439 students between 2015 and 2026.

The losses range from Perry County's 57.7% to Lee County's 13.7%, but the pattern is the same: no recovery year after COVID, no stabilization, no single year of growth.

Three more districts, Birmingham City^↗, Mobile County^↗, and Montgomery County^↗, have declined every year for 10 consecutive years. These are far larger systems: Mobile alone lost 10,536 students over the period, more than all nine 11-year streak districts combined. Together, the 12 districts with streaks of 10 years or longer account for 45.5% of all enrollment losses across every declining district in the state.

The Black Belt core

The most severe losses are concentrated in three Black Belt counties where enrollment has effectively halved. Perry County fell from 1,730 to 731 students (57.7%), losing an average of 5.2% of its remaining enrollment each year. Sumter County dropped from 1,695 to 806 (52.4%). Wilcox County went from 1,869 to 1,012 (45.9%).

At these enrollment levels, basic operations become difficult. Perry County's 731 students spread across multiple grade levels may not fill a single section per grade. Sumter County superintendent Marcy Burroughs told the Alabama Reflector that the connection between population and funding is direct:

"We don't have the funds to pay teachers or teacher salary longterm." -- Alabama Reflector, January 2024

The depopulation driving these losses predates the enrollment data. Perry County's population is a third of its 1940 level. As mechanized agriculture eliminated farm labor jobs, younger residents left for cities, aging the population and shrinking the tax base. The poverty rate in Perry County stands at 36%, and Dallas County, where Selma sits, lost roughly 5,000 residents between the 2010 and 2020 censuses.

Selma City's enrollment fell from 3,810 to 2,123 over the period, a 44.3% loss. The neighboring Dallas County school system is now under state intervention, with the Alabama State Board of Education voting in March 2025 to take over personnel, finance, and operations.

Two outliers on the list

Lee County and Walker County have 11-year decline streaks, but their situations differ from the Black Belt districts.

Lee County lost 1,355 students (13.7%), a modest rate by the standards of this list. The county surrounds Auburn, one of Alabama's fastest-growing cities. Auburn City schools, a separate district, gained 1,140 students over the same period. Opelika City, also in Lee County, added 1,158. As the city systems attract families through reputation and investment, Lee County's rural schools appear to be on the losing end of an intra-county transfer dynamic. The county's population is growing; its county school enrollment is not.

Walker County, in northwest Alabama's coal country, lost 1,475 students (18.7%). Superintendent Dennis Willingham told WBRC that the losses reflect population shifts, not school quality: "We're not hearing that it's any fault of our schools." The decline has persisted across economic cycles, with the steepest single-year drop, 382 students, coming in 2025-26.

The scale mismatch

The nine 11-year streak districts collectively lost 9,439 students. Mobile County alone lost 10,536. In percentage terms, Perry County's 57.7% decline dwarfs Mobile's 18.4%. In absolute numbers, the dynamic reverses completely.

This distinction matters for state policy. Alabama's Foundation Program, the funding formula unchanged since 1995, allocates resources primarily through teacher units tied to enrollment counts. When a large district like Mobile loses 10,536 students, the budget impact is measured in tens of millions. When Perry County loses 999 students, the absolute dollar figure is smaller, but the operational consequence is existential: there may not be enough students to justify keeping a school open.

State Superintendent Eric Mackey acknowledged that the state maintains some schools with fewer than 100 students "simply because of remoteness." For the smallest Black Belt systems, the question is no longer how to grow but how long the current structure can be sustained.

What the aggregate trend hides

The combined year-over-year losses for the 12 districts with decade-long streaks mask an important pattern. In 2016, these districts collectively gained 2,315 students, driven by Birmingham, Mobile, and Montgomery. Every year since has been negative, with losses ranging from 1,784 (2020) to 4,935 (2018).

COVID did not cause a visible spike in the aggregate, because these districts were already losing students at a steady pace. The pandemic simply blended into an existing trajectory.

Two districts that had been on this list, Hale County and Tallassee City, broke their streaks in 2026, each gaining a handful of students (six and nine, respectively). Whether these are genuine reversals or statistical noise will not be clear until next year's data.

What the CHOOSE Act adds

Alabama's CHOOSE Act, an education savings account program signed in 2024, drew approximately 3,000 students from public schools in its first year (2025-26). Of the roughly 24,000 students awarded ESAs, about two-thirds were already in private or home school settings.

For districts already on decade-long decline trajectories, even a small additional pull from the CHOOSE Act compounds the pressure. But the enrollment data cannot isolate how many ESA recipients came from these specific districts. The program's statewide impact, while real, is modest compared to the structural demographic forces that have been emptying these communities for decades.

Where this leads

Greene County, with a nine-year decline streak, lost 35.6% of its enrollment since 2015 and is on pace to join the 10-year list next year if the pattern continues. Across Alabama, the state lost 5,800 students in 2025-26, what officials called the largest single-year drop in 40 years.

The question for Perry County, Sumter County, and Wilcox County is not whether enrollment will stabilize. At annual loss rates exceeding 4%, the question is at what enrollment level a district can no longer function as a district. Perry County, with 731 students, is testing that threshold now.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

28 Alabama Districts Have Recovered to Pre-COVID Enrollment. Four in Five Have Not

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Five years after the pandemic emptied classrooms across Alabama, the students have not come back. Of 138 districts with comparable enrollment data from before COVID through 2025-26, just 28 have returned to their fall 2019 levels. That is a recovery rate of 20.3%.

The state as a whole has fared worse than any individual recovery statistic suggests. Alabama enrolled 740,118 K-12 students in the 2019-20 school year (the last pre-COVID fall count). By 2025-26, that figure had fallen to 714,363, a loss of 25,755 students, or 3.5%. The pandemic did not cause a temporary dip followed by a rebound. It marked the beginning of a sustained decline that has now lasted four consecutive years.

The false recovery of 2022

Alabama's year-over-year pattern tells a story of one brief reprieve surrounded by losses. After COVID drove enrollment down by 10,332 students in 2020-21, the state clawed back 6,022 in 2021-22. That single year accounts for the entirety of Alabama's post-pandemic recovery. Every year since has brought another decline: 6,019 lost in 2022-23, then 11,073 in 2023-24 (the largest single-year drop in the dataset), followed by 1,243 in 2024-25 and 3,110 in 2025-26.

The 2022 rebound, in other words, was not the start of recovery. It was an interruption in a downward slide.

Had pre-pandemic trends held, Alabama would have enrolled roughly 741,860 students in 2025-26 (based on the 2015-2020 linear trajectory). The actual count of 714,363 leaves the state 27,497 students below that projection, a gap that has widened every year since 2022.

Three cities, 14,495 missing students

The largest raw losses are concentrated in Alabama's urban cores. Mobile County^↗ has lost 7,314 students since its pre-COVID count, a 13.5% decline. Birmingham City^↗ is down 3,665 students (16.0%), and Montgomery County^↗ has lost 3,516 (12.4%). Together, these three districts account for 14,495 of the state's 25,755-student shortfall, or 56.3%.

Jefferson County^↗, which surrounds Birmingham, lost another 3,254 students (8.9%), bringing the Big Four total to 17,749.

The losses extend deep into smaller systems. Dallas County^↗ has lost 29.3% of its enrollment since 2020. Selma City^↗ is down 25.5%. Walker County^↗ lost 1,042 students, a 14.0% decline. These are districts that were already operating on thin margins.

Where the students went

State Superintendent Eric Mackey offered a blunt accounting in October 2025. Of the 5,800 students Alabama's public schools lost that year, approximately 3,000 enrolled in private schools or homeschool programs using education savings accounts through the CHOOSE Act, the voucher-like program signed into law in March 2024. Another 2,100 students simply vanished from enrollment records.

"We know we have about 2,100 kids that were enrolled last year that have just disappeared. They're just gone." -- WBRC, Oct. 2025

Mackey reported that local superintendents identified a majority of the unaccounted students as Hispanic, though federal privacy law prohibits schools from inquiring about immigration status. The CHOOSE Act's first-year impact was more modest than its appropriation suggested: of approximately 24,000 ESA recipients, roughly 10,000 were already attending private schools, and another 9,000 were already homeschooled. Only about 3,000 transferred out of public schools, according to state data.

The CHOOSE Act's second year could have a larger effect. Lawmakers have discussed making the program universal despite tight Education Trust Fund budgets, which would open eligibility beyond the current income-tiered structure.

But the CHOOSE Act alone does not explain the scale of the post-COVID shortfall. The 25,755-student gap accumulated over five years. Birth rate declines, interstate migration, and a persistent post-pandemic shift toward homeschooling and private schooling all contributed. Alabama's natural population change turned negative in 2024, with deaths exceeding births by 2,200, a demographic headwind that enrollment data is only beginning to reflect.

The virtual school mirage

The three districts that appear to have staged the most impressive post-COVID recoveries are, on closer inspection, artifacts of virtual school enrollment that did not exist before the pandemic.

Limestone County^↗ grew from 11,030 to 16,633 students (50.8%), but nearly half of its current enrollment consists of Alabama Connections Academy students. Eufaula City^↗ surged from 5,367 to 8,619 (60.6%), with Alabama Virtual Academy accounting for roughly three-quarters of its headcount. Chickasaw City^↗ more than doubled, from 1,549 to 3,387 (118.7%), largely through Alabama Destinations Career Academy.

Remove these three districts and the recovery rate drops from 22.0% to 20.3%. The virtual enrollment these districts carry is real in the sense that students are receiving instruction, but it inflates the host district's numbers in ways that obscure the underlying trend. As Mackey told Alabama Daily News: "Virtual school is a good fit for some young people...but it's not for everybody."

The funding cliff behind the enrollment cliff

Enrollment decline does not just mean empty desks. Alabama's Foundation Program allocates teacher units based on student headcounts from the 20-day count following Labor Day. Fewer students means fewer units, which means fewer teachers funded by the state.

"Between 500-700 teacher jobs will disappear next year as we work on the next budget cycle." -- State Superintendent Eric Mackey, WBRC, Oct. 2025

More than half of Alabama's school districts faced teacher unit reductions in 2025-26. The cuts fell hardest on small and rural systems, particularly in the Black Belt. Selma City lost 10% of its teacher units (from 143 to 128). Sumter County dropped 9% (from 54 to 50). Linden City lost 9% (from 23 to 21). These are districts where state funding constitutes the overwhelming majority of operating budgets.

Recovery by district size

Medium-sized districts (5,000-10,000 students) have the lowest recovery rate at 16.0%, with only four of 25 returning to pre-COVID levels. Small districts (1,000-5,000) recovered at 19.8%, and large districts (10,000+) at 23.1%. The handful of micro districts under 1,000 students fared best at 33.3%, though the sample is small (three of nine).

Among the districts that did recover without virtual school inflation, several share a common profile: fast-growing suburban communities in the Tennessee Valley or the Auburn-Opelika corridor. Madison City^↗ gained 1,336 students (11.6%). Athens City^↗ added 1,101 (25.1%). These are places where new housing construction is pulling families from neighboring counties, not places where the pandemic's effects have been reversed.

Athens City has been building to keep pace. According to Superintendent Beth Patton, the district opened a new 260,000-square-foot high school in 2019, a new elementary campus in 2023, and expanded its intermediate school with eight classrooms and a gymnasium in 2025. A second new elementary school, Julian Newman Elementary, opened the same year with capacity for more than 700 students. The district is now searching for land to build yet another school. "We are excited about the future and believe the best is yet to come," Patton said.

What the next count will show

The 2026-27 school year will be the CHOOSE Act's second cycle. When income limits lift in 2027-28, the pull on public enrollment could accelerate. The 2,100 students who disappeared from rolls in 2025-26 without formal transfers represent a category that enrollment data cannot fully explain. Whether those families left the state, shifted to unreported homeschooling, or left the country, the seats they occupied will not be funded in 2026-27.

Alabama's four-year decline streak has now erased all of the 2016 enrollment spike and then some, pushing the state to its lowest K-12 headcount since before 2015. For superintendents in Mobile, Birmingham, and Montgomery, the question is no longer when recovery will arrive. It is how to operate school systems built for 25,000 more students than they serve.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.